Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

R (estimate) 1.00 (to 4 decimal places, 0.9993)
Although I am slightly doubtful of the cases total today, this does fit the trend. Getting R down below 1 is excellent. It means daily cases are falling. It's where we need to be, and stay.

The bad news is deaths. But this is not unexpected - we've had very high case numbers; this is part of the price we pay for allowing that. I expect this upward trend to continue for ~2 weeks.
63 new deaths - total now 3263.
7-day average: 41.43 (UP 1.57)
2/3

I mentioned yesterday that I was doubtful of press reports of #Ceredigion (and in particular #Aberystwyth) being a hotspot. I still doubt that. Ceredigion has 19 new cases reported today.
7-day average: 25.43 (DOWN 4.71)
14-day average (probably a better guide): 20.86 (DOWN 0.14)

Aberystwyth north had 0 cases yesterday; Aberystwyth south 3. I don't have today's data yet. But that doesn't suggest an outbreak. I recommend Lowri Williams' web site for more detail.
https://lowriwilliams.co.uk/projects/coronavirus_wales_2.html
3/3

Today's #Covid19Cymru data show 2761 new cases. Figures tend to increase over the course of a week, so the fact that it is lower than it has been is not necessarily significant. However, R is down, and is approaching 1, which is very good news.
7-day average: 2699 (UP 21)
1/4

R (estimate): 1.03
The effect of lockdown from 00:00 Sunday won't have come through yet in these figures. So the continuing downward trend in R really doesn't fit with all the panic of Saturday's announcements - though a lockdown was definitely needed; cases are far too high.
2/4

24 deaths were reported today. That brings the 7-day average to 36.86 (UP 2.14). This is likely still distorted by under-reporting just over a week ago, though; the backlogged data still counts against the past 7 days' average.
It's one of the consequences of trying to use the most recent data rather than going back & using older, but more reliable, data on actual death dates. I took a decision early on to use the latest, in order to try to spot trends quicker. Others can analyse other data.
3/4

#Ceredigion saw 22 cases reported. Here too there is an issue of backlogged data affecting the past week's average, which therefore is artificially high. It stands at 25.43 (UP 2.29). The 14-day average is 20.5, which is probably a better reflection of the true situation.
4/4

And then there's this.

Interesting fact of the day:

Islamic medicine was well ahead of its time when it came to the treatment of the mentally ill. the Quran demanded the those with mental illness be taken care of and treated kindly, this was reflected in how doctors of the time cared for the mentally ill and very much a departure from the attitudes of other cultures at the time where the mentally ill were demonized or quite literally treated as possessed.

Here is the specific quote from the quran translated to english:

"Do not give your property which God assigned you to manage to the insane: but feed and clothe the insane with this property and tell splendid words to them." -- Sura 4:5

#History #Islam #Musslim #Quran #Religion #Psychology #medicin #history #science @Science

I witnessed my one-year old nephew experiencing so many things in his life for the first time.

It's amazing to see how he already developed a sense of humor and what cracks him up. Watching him smile at me is the most calming thing in the world.

Today's #Covid19Cymru figures show a slightly lower value for cases than I would have expected, though it is possible there was a longer term correction at play, from the large gaps PHW had between 10th and 17th (interpolated black points on graph), pushing up recent values.

The 7-day average is now 2678 - UP 5
R (estimate) is now 1.06 - DOWN 0.02
1/3

Although these values are dependent somewhat on my guesses for the interpolated points (note: the total is still correct!), it's intriguing that R is still showing a downward trend - especially in the light of the supposed new strain.

There were 10 new deaths recorded. Sunday and Monday always have seen lower values for deaths; last Monday was an exception, so this takes the 7-day average to 34.71 - that's DOWN 3.29 (and not an indicator of a trend; it's still the second highest ever).
2/3

#Ceredigion is not looking good. 27 new cases takes the 7-day average to 23.14; UP 3.29, and the highest recorded in the county. But again, this is quite likely an effect of PHW's computer issues last week, so may not be an indication of a worsening situation.

For other counties, the clearest source is @LloydCymru@Twitter's web site:
https://coronaviruscymru.wales/

3/3

23:22 : RED ALERT : Strong geomagnetic substorm in progress. https://aurora-alerts.uk

That Zoom shut down accounts and calls where people were talking about Tiananmen Square is bad enough. But you need to understand the subtext: Zoom says that their calls are encrypted and private, and yet they can monitor them.

Those two things are mutually exclusive. This entire video chat system is built on a foundation of lies and backdoors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/12/18/zoom-helped-china-surveillance/