Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

Blocked by US, UK and EU 😭

South Africa and India push for COVID-19 patents ban - The Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32581-2/fulltext

@mur2501

Science is about observation, sharing those observations, discussing those observations, and getting better at predicting what we expect to observe given certain conditions... that is all science is about, doing that and doing it well. Right and wrong is the domain of the human ego and rests squarely outside of science.

@Wetrix @icedquinn

Today's #Covid19Cymru headline:
Cases still going the right way. R back down below 1.
Local authority data not accessible on PHW web site. I will update later if it becomes available.

Cases tend to rise through the working week. 2069 new cases, although up on yesterday, is significantly lower than last Tuesday. We're dealing with averages which include the week after Christmas, so confidence in trends is low.
7-day average: 2122 - DOWN 63

1/3

R (estimate): 0.94 - DOWN 0.06
That's a significant drop in one day. But the same caveat as above applies.
The shape of the cases graph looks very like a blip caused by Christmas day infections happened. Later by-sample-date data are needed to confirm this though.
2/3

17 deaths is very low for a Tuesday; a day which often sees a rebound after the weekend. This seems improbable to me. Don't be surprised if tomorrow's figure is high.
If this is a true reflection of the number of deaths, it's very good news!
7-day averge: 35.14 - DOWN 2.29
3/3

The Local Authorities figures are now available for #Covid19Cymru and the news for #Ceredigion is:
Slight improvement. 11 new cases.
7-day average: 20.0 - DOWN 0.43
The VERY approximate R rate is 1.01, which is also down on the last few days, but still the wrong side of 1.

#JulianAssange cannot be extradited to #US, British judge rules | Media | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jan/04/julian-assange-cannot-be-extradited-to-us-british-judge-rules

#UK #Law #Wikileaks

Today's #Covid19Cymru summary:
Cases down, my estimated R unchanged at 1.00, deaths still high (as expected).

I said to a friend who asked me this morning what I thought the case figures would be:
Anything under 1900 is good, over 2100 is bad.
It's 1898.
7-day average: 2185 - DOWN 54
1/3

R (estimate): 1.00 - UNCHANGED (still >1 to the 3rd decimal place - 1.001)
Still not much can be read into this, given that the calculation uses data over the Christmas and New Year period.

There were 25 deaths reported today. That's high for a Monday (which along with Sunday are usually the low points due to weekend reporting), though working practices could have been different over the new year weekend.
7-day average: 37.43 - UP 1.43
2/3

#Ceredigion has 15 new cases. The county saw some low figures over Christmas, which may or may not have been a true reflection of the situation, so the average goes up today. Small numbers don't provide good data for spotting trends.
7-day average: 20.43 - UP 1.29

Whilst cases are falling in the south, they are rising in the north. See this article:
https://nation.cymru/news/cases-rising-quickly-in-north-of-wales-we-believe-this-is-because-of-the-new-fast-moving-strain/
3/3

Today's #Covid19Cymru data has 2 days in 1, so I have divided the totals across the 2 days for the sake of graphs and calculating trends.
It's a mixed picture today. The most worrying thing is that my estimated R has gone back above 1, but there are caveats.
4011 new cases were recorded for the 2 days (I've recorded 2005.5 per day). That takes the 7-day average to 2237 - DOWN 18 over 2 days.
1/4

R (estimate) 1.00 (to 3 decimal places, 1.004) - UP 0.05 over 2 days.

R is very worrying, and would be consistent with the new, more infectious strain gaining ground.

Caveat 1: data over the last 2 weeks have been less regular, and the positivity rate was high. Today it's lower than it's been for a week (20.4%). The higher the +vity, the more the actual figures are likely to be an under-estimate, so this figure is going the right way.
2/4

Caveat 2: many expected a surge following irresponsible or unwise behaviour on Christmas day. If this happened to a significant degree, now is when we would be seeing it in the case figures. So this could be a blip. Only time will tell.

There were 56 deaths reported today. I've therefore recorded 28 per day for the last 2 days.
7-day average: 36.0 - DOWN 2.0 on 2 days ago.
3/4

33 cases were recorded in #Ceredigion over the 2 days - I've recorded 16.5 per day.
7-day average: 19.14 - DOWN 0.57 on 2 days ago.
A very rough estimate of R for Ceredigion is 1.14. Such an estimate can only ever be rough because the figures are relatively low.
4/4