Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

The best news of today for cases is the positivity, which is way down at its lowest since I started recording it - so well before the last peak, at 7.1%.

Deaths continue their rapid fall, with 22 recorded today. There's been a very sudden and very steep fall in cases these past few days, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a backlog to come through at some point soon.
7-day average: 20.71 - DOWN 3.86
4/5

#Ceredigion's low numbers continue, recording just 3 today, sharing top spot with Monmouthshire, and third to Monmouthshire and Penfro (4 cases) in Per Capita terms.
7-day average: 2.71 - DOWN 0.29

The location of Ceredigion's cases (with thanks to
Lowri Williams) are:
1: Aberystwyth South
1: Aberaeron & Llanrhystud
1: Aberteifi & Aberporth
https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html
5/5

https://gov.wales/written-statement-written-statement-health-protection-regulations?utm_source=rss-topics-Coronavirus+%28COVID-19%29&utm_medium=rss-feed&utm_campaign=rss-Written+Statement%3A+Written+Statement+on+the+Health+Protection+Regulations

Drier European summers projected under #ClimateChange

...Furthermore, human induced #climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extremely dry conditions across all of #Europe.
“We are expecting to see significant changes in European summers as a result of human-induced climate change. Summers may become a lot drier and this shift is expected to become more prominent as we move through the century.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/drier-european-summers-projected-under-human-induced-climate-change

#ClimateCrisis #Meteorology

The Net Zero Challenge is a global competition to answer the following question: How can you advance climate action using #opendata? - https://www.netzerochallenge.info/ great idea

That's the third time this week I read an article talking about how Apple invented the smartphone and mobile applications. Who's spreading this nonsense?

Yes, Apple made smartphones popular (I guess?). But let's not rewrite history here: we had smartphones and apps several years before the first iPhone got released.

Looking for THE CURE - WISH on vinyl. Anyone have one they are willing to part with that doesn't require a kidney donation hit me up. Or if you know of a place that will ship to the states with covid still in full swing.

XVII( I do not love you)

I do not love you as if you were salt-rose, or topaz,

or the arrow of carnations the fire shoots off.

I love you as certain dark things are to be loved,

in secret, between the shadow and the soul.

I love you as the plant that never blooms
but carries in itself the light of hidden flowers;

thanks to your love a certain solid fragrance,

risen from the earth, lives darkly in my body.

I love you without knowing how, or when, or from where.

I love you straightforwardly, without complexities or pride;

so I love you because I know no other way
than this: where I does not exist, nor you,
so close that your hand on my chest is my hand,

so close that your eyes close as I fall asleep.

-- Pablo Neruda

this is one of my favorite poems 🙂

#poem #poetry #english #writing

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases: the trend continues to fall. R down slightly. Deaths down. Positivity down. Again another good news day.

My model's prediction (based on R) for today was 417 cases. We have 410, so I'm confident in the figures. It's another good fall in the average, and a very slight fall in R.
7-day average: 461 - DOWN 19

R (estimate): 0.85 - DOWN 0.01 (due to rounding - actually only 0.003, so more or less static).

1/4

I am relieved to see R falling, after its rise to aronud 0.9 in the past week. Tomorrow's figure however may well show a slight rise due to odd data last Friday and Saturday.

Positivity is right down at 7.7%, which is the third lowest since the last peak, all three of those in the past week.
It's time I graphed this. It's a crude measure of infection rates, but it supports the other data.

2/4

I am very pleased to see deaths falling still. I had expected today might see a rise, because yesterday was lower than I'd expected. Hopefully, at last, the faster fall in cases of the past month is coming through in death figures.
7-day average: 27.41 - DOWN 1.14

3/4

#Ceredigion has 2 cases for the second consecutive day. Once again these are in different places to the previous day, suggesting to me that they are cases brought in from outside the county (disclaimer: I'm not an epidemiologist).
https://portalcovidcymru.co.uk/map.html

7-day average: 3.71 - DOWN 0.43

Particularly worthy of mention today is Merthyr Tudful, which reports zero cases. Ceredigion shares second place with Sir Benfro, on 2.

[Data table screenshot from LA tab at https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary]

4/4

Just how does public money end up in the pockets of Cummings' friends? - https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/a-river-to-my-people/ one of the few groups trying to hold UK gov to account; really needs some support (FWIW I've given multiple times to the org)

Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland should get out of the “corrupt, dysfunctional, chaotic” UK as soon as possible, according to environmentalist and author George Monbiot.

https://nation.cymru/news/monbiot-wales-should-escape-chaotic-dyfunctional-corrupt-uk-as-soon-as-possible/

The rewatch was worth it...

“I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived. I did not wish to live what was not life, living is so dear; nor did I wish to practise resignation, unless it was quite necessary. I wanted to live deep and suck out all the marrow of life, to live so sturdily and Spartan-like as to put to rout all that was not life, to cut a broad swath and shave close, to drive life into a corner, and reduce it to its lowest terms...”

You shall no longer take things at second or third hand, nor look through the eyes of the dead, nor feed on the spectres in books,

You shall not look through my eyes either, nor take things from me,

You shall listen to all sides and filter them from yourself.

-- Walt Whitman, Song of myself, 1892

#english #poem #poetry

Businesses in south-east of England got 1,000 times more investment than Wales in UK Gov scheme - Nation.Cymru https://nation.cymru/news/businesses-in-south-east-of-england-got-1000-times-more-investment-than-wales-in-uk-gov-scheme/

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases fall to their lowest since the beginning of October. R also falls. Deaths down. Positivity down. Today is excellent news all round.

I had thought that my model's prediction for today - 342 - was optimistic. But the figure has come in slightly under that. The fact that it is in line with my prediction gives me confidence that it's genuine.
1/4

It's likely that it's a lower figure than usual because Wednesday's figures likely represent weekend testing events, but the 7-day average trend is still on its way down.
7-day average: 480 - DOWN 19

R (estimate): 0.86 - DOWN 0.02
It's good to see this falling, as I had believed we were settling in the 0.9 area. Today could be a blip though!

The positivity, at 8.5% the third lowest for many months, is also indicative of a genuine continuing reduction in cases.
2/4