Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases down. R down. Deaths down.
In short, today is fairly good news. The downward trend looks well established. There's still no room for wiggle though.

Today's new cases figure of 1332 is the lowest (excluding days with apparent or known reporting issues) since the end of Nov. It is in line with the trend, +possibly some settling after the new year, so there is no reason to doubt its validity.
7-day average: 1943 - DOWN 105
(table from PHW web site)
1/3

R (estimate): 0.94 - DOWN 0.025
This takes R back to where it was for most of week 1 2021. R falling is excellent; it means cases are falling faster. But whilst it is still close to 1, we can't let up our guard, especially as we know the new variant could push it up again.

Test positivity is 17.6% - still fairly low compared with recent weeks (that's a good sign too).
2/3

There were 16 deaths reported today. This is improbably low, and I expect a rebound tomorrow and/or Thursday, as we saw last week.
7-day average: 47.86 - DOWN 0.14

#Ceredigion has 17 new cases, which takes the county's average up a little, and puts the estimated (very approximate) R just a fraction over 1 (the only bad news of the day - at least, in what I'm reporting on).
7-day average: 17.86 - UP 0.86
3/3

I currently have variables in my algorithmic trading program named "cum_return" short for "cumulative return". This brings me pleasure.

LETTER – Wales has twice the GDP of 130 indepedent nations | County Times https://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/18997311.letter---wales-twice-gdp-130-indepedent-nations/

#GaiaAmByth
More stunning scenery from #Cymru
Photo credit: @ddraigcariad

https://toot.wales/media/nh12W7OxRAQy-8iGHok

https://toot.wales/media/vQC5SrG4Xe6270GoYbk

https://toot.wales/media/6kHg3zXFP_4ETDt3i9M

Hitachi pulls plug on Wylfa nuclear power project - Nation.Cymru https://nation.cymru/news/hitachi-pulls-plug-on-wylfa-nuclear-power-project/

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
Cases edge down again, R unchanged. Deaths slightly down.
Mostly good news, but R still uncomfortably close to 1.

There were 1793 new cases reported today; down 105 on last Monday, so the averages head in the right direction.
7-day average: 2048 - DOWN 15

R (estimate): 0.975 - UNCHANGED
As yesterday, the percentage of tests with a positive result is again lower today (16.5%) than we've been used to seeing for the last month or so, which is a very good sign.
1/2

There were 17 deaths reported. Although Monday nearly always sees lower figures than later in the week, this is down on last Monday (by 8).
7-day average: 48.0 - DOWN 1.14

Ceredigion has 15 new cases (the lowest in Cymru today). That's the same as last Monday, so the average remains unchanged. The extremely approximate estimated R is at a nice round 0.875 (slightly down).
7-day average: 17.0 - UNCHANGED.
2/2

Don't Toss It, Fix It! Europe Is Guaranteeing Citizens the "Right to Repair"
https://reasonstobecheerful.world/europe-guarantee-right-to-repair-ifixit/

(And this is my first of what I am sure will be dozens of moments this year where I go "yay" and then remember I was involuntarily stripped of EU citizenship and this doesn't apply to me or my kin at all)

I'm not going to release any averages for today's #Covid19Cymru, because last Saturday and Sunday were combined into one single release of data. So although I divided the total in half, and spread between the days, that probably doesn't reflect what would have happened.
We know Saturdays have often been very high compared to Sundays. So, although today's 2373 cases is relatively high compared to recent days - and I'm a little uncomfortable with it, it's lower than yesterday.
1/3

All graphs are from yesterday.

For the same reason, I won't be giving an estimate of R (it's based on 7-day averages). It's been 0.94 for the past 4 days. We will know tomorrow if that has changed.
Amongst this, there is though a positive indicator. Positivity is 19.5%, and that's lower than since 27/12.

2/3

There were 62 new deaths. Again averages are fairly meaningless - though this is still frighteningly high - and, as I keep pointing out - predicted, and an inevitable consequence of allowing cases to rise so high in mid December.

#Ceredigion has 18 new cases, which seems in line with what we've been seeing for over a month. But again, I won't be reporting on the average until tomorrow.
3/3

Tributes pour in for councillor who died from Covid - Nation.Cymru https://nation.cymru/news/tributes-pour-in-for-councillor-who-died-from-covid/
Kevin, 63, said then: “I can’t express it enough, be sensible and think about what you’re doing. Every bed in here is full, they can’t cope with any more. For the sake of a day, one night out, a Christmas dinner or a party, it’s just not worth it. It’s really not worth it.”