Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
It's a slightly disappointing set of results today. The fall continues, but not as fast as recent days. R is up. Positivity is the best news - it is down.
Reported deaths do not correspond with the total.

There were 267 cases reported today. Whilst that continues the downward trend, the last 2 days have seen a much slower rate of fall than the previous 5.
7-day average: 227 - DOWN 7

1/5

Seven of yesterday's case figures were from late January. It's only natural therefore to wonder if there might be a more general issue with reporting at the moment. There's no clear sign of this, but recent patterns are odd. I don't have today's by-sample-date figures yet.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.82 - UP 0.01
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.85 - UP 0.01

These are just small rises, but just 3 days ago estimate 1 was down at 0.75.

2/5

Positivity brings us good news today. At 5.0%, it's the second lowest post-peak recorded.

PHW reports 13 deaths, however gives a total number of deaths that is only 10 greater than yesterday.
LloydCymru tells me this is because Hywel Dda has removed 3 because of data reconciliation. My spreadsheet thus shows 10, and for internal consistency I'm going with that.

7-day average: 11.71 - DOWN 1.57

This is the lowest 7-day rolling average since the week centred on 24th October.
3/5

Why are Brits the fattest in #WesternEurope? - #BBC #Food

https://www.bbc.co.uk/food/articles/britain_diet

#UK #Health #Obesity

"He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And if you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you."

-- Friedrich Nietzsche

Today's #Covid19Cymru headlines:
A new record low in cases, just 1 death, R still low. Ceredigion records zero cases.

170 cases is the lowest single day figure since 17th September. The 7-day average is at its lowest since 19th September.
7-day average: 238

Positivity is always high on a Tuesday (it's mostly weekend sample results, so fewer routine tests, so more likely to be positive). Given that, 6.1% is significantly lower than last Tuesday's 8.6%,...
1/5

... which was up to now the lowest post-peak Tuesday figure.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.76 - UP 0.01
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.84 - DOWN 0.01

With estimate 2 necessarily lagging by a few days, these figures seem now to be converging on a new normal, after a while in the 0.9-1.0 area.

An R of 0.76 represents a time to half of cases of around 10 days. 0.8 is 12 days and 0.84 is 16 days.

2/5

There was just 1 death recorded. Although I always add the caveat on a Monday and Tuesday that this reflects weekend reporting (which is always lower), this is still remarkable; the last time a 1 was recorded in figures I'd consider not suspicious was 19th October.
7-day average: 13.43 - DOWN 0.43
This is still slightly higher than it was 6 days ago though. There was either (probably) a data blip, or (less likely, I suspect) a genuine issue (eg a more deadly strain gaining ground?).
3/5

#Ceredigion recorded zero cases for the 4th time in 5 weeks, and the second time within a week.
7-day average: 2.0 - DOWN 0.43
Other notable counties:
Conwy (1), Bro Morgannwg (1), Dinbych (3), Môn (3)
4/5

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"No, we have a 6502 at home."

The 6502 at home... #retrocomputing #mos6502

#Ceredigion, #Elenydd, #Cymru / #Wales Heddiw/Today

A third of top #UK #firms emit enough #CO2 to push up #GlobalWarming by 2.7C | #GreenhouseGas #emissions | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/01/a-third-of-top-uk-firms-emit-enough-co2-to-push-up-global-warming-by-27c

#FossilFuels #Environment #ClilmateChnage #Companies #Corporations

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#dysgycymraeg #cymru

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What better for Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Sant than record low Covid case figures, with deaths falling too? The steep downward trend that started so suddenly just a few days ago is hereby pretty much confirmed as genuine. Sir Benfro records zero cases.

193 new cases is the lowest since 18th September.
7-day average: 259 - DOWN 19
The average is centred on 4 days ago (obviously), so when figures are falling (or rising) fast it is a less accurate reflection of the current position than usual.
1/4

Positivity is 4.6%; the second lowest seen post-peak.

R (estimate 1 - publication date data): 0.75 - DOWN 0.06
R (estimate 2 - sample date data): 0.85 - DOWN 0.03

Yesterday I was overly cautious in giving a range for estimate 2 (0.88-0.94).
Whilst estimate 1 is strictly from a formula, estimate 2 involves a judgment on my part where to draw the cut-off point, as the most recent dates have incomplete data. Today I've not been so cautious, as it's clear this new trend is now real.
2/4