Ian Kenway @iankenway@social.cleverlibre.org

(the d'Hondt method; that's where the maths comes in), but taking into account the party allegiance of the first 8. That gives a very proportional 12 from each region.
Except, there are flaws in this. The main flaw actually favours the Labour party; that is, if a party more than fills its d'Hondt quota with constituency AS's, that region will not be proportional. This usually happens in the three South Wales regions.
2/

It also means that smaller parties have to get more than 1/12 (~8%) of the region vote to get represented.
If we divide Cymru into 16 regions (double-[new-border] constituencies), which are completely elected via d'Hondt, that eliminates the possibility for over-representation, amongst the 8 members that each double-constituency will elect.
But it also means that a party (or indeed an individual) would need around 12% of the vote to be elected.
3/

So, in a best case with the current system, around 8% will get an AS, but the best case is more often than not not achieved.
In every case, in the new system, around 12% will be required. These figures are not precise, because they depend on the exact division of votes between other parties.
But - and this is a big but - when you have smaller regions, you have a greater chance of local influences affecting the result.
4/

So, if for example, the Green party were to put up a popular candidate, they would have a greater chance of reaching 12% within the proposed system than they would with larger regions. Would that be enough to close the gap between old and new? I don't know, but quite possibly. As (all) parties tend to be stronger in some regions than others, I suspect this will easily compensate for the higher percentage required.
5/

This regional variation applies particularly to the Lib Dems, so I am quite surprised Jane Dodds has come out against it. It would be very surprising if her party didn't increase their representation to a good few seats under the current proposal.
6/

My qualification for answering this is my statistical background, and the fact that I've programmed an implementation of the d'Hondt method for an application I was working on, so I understand the maths behind it very well.

I was also a candidate on the Mid & West Wales list for #PlaidCymru in 2021, so I have experience from both the statistical and political sides.
/8

@iankenway A professor asked my class what the US makes that isn't garbage and I responded that we have an agency just for these products. He asked me what I meant and I responded that the BATFE monitors our best products. I believe that I earned points on the exam for this answer.

#wednesdaythoughts

@iankenway
I get where this list is coming from, but these ideas could be clarified/expanded on.

1. The progressive taxation they recommend would need a starting point for the upper bracket(s).
2. UBI requires something like rent restrictions to really work.
3. A market can only be truly free if monopolism and negative externalities are kept in check.
4. "No walled gardens" might not mean the same thing to everyone.
5. Sortition is a good idea, as long as it is only used to select assemblies of voters, not for directly selecting an official. For single-seat elections, I would also recommend that the assemblies use approval voting.

Saved a dehydrated bird. Took him in and fed him water from a syringe until he was able to fly again. Just released him and he seems good.

@stux The richest people in Germany managed to double their money during the pandemic, meanwhile many people have to turn over every cent twice to make end's meet.
A really nice thing in an economy where money equals power.

How do I get my mental focus back? What happened, anyway? Old age? Long consequences of some undiagnosed asymptomatic COVID? Relentless prolonged exhaustion? Social media?

Tories' hypocrisy knows no bounds.
https://nation.cymru/news/conservatives-to-raise-taxes-on-second-homes-in-england-after-criticising-move-in-wales/

Hard work but worth it - Perspective Magazine
"The economic truth, which is now universally accepted, is that the UK is one of the most unequal economies in the industrialised world."
https://perspectivemag.co.uk/hard-work-but-worth-it/#:~:text=The%20economic%20truth%2C%20which%20is%20now%20universally%20accepted%2C%20is%20that%20the%20UK%20is%20one%20of%20the%20most%20unequal%20economies%20in%20the%20industrialised%20world.