I'm not an economist, so maybe I'm trivializing here, but one explanation I'm not hearing in all the discussions around these labor reports is that the forecasters are just really bad at forecasting.
I'm not an economist, so maybe I'm trivializing here, but one explanation I'm not hearing in all the discussions around these labor reports is that the forecasters are just really bad at forecasting.
@internic @mcnees
I suspect that with forecasts in many areas unexpected "bad" events are treated much more harshly than unexpected "good" ones. Consider weather forecasting: predicted rain that doesn't happen will annoy a few farmers, while a prediction of nice sunny weather (which turns out to be rain) annoys more people who made weekend plans. Likewise for jobs: predicting 300k *more* than actual might be a career-ending event (as planners who consume forecasts are more risk-averse).