@brewsterkahle I think this is key to estimating the effect of COVID-19. It’s a net effect, so if we have fewer deaths from flu, for example, as a result of masking and isolation, but “excess deaths” are still higher… I don’t trust that we’re consistently assessing cause of death accurately across the country, but overall death numbers are hard to fudge. So I’ve been treating “excess deaths” as “caused by COVID, directly or indirectly,” for years now.