@AE4WX @kc2ihx "Human factors" are part of the equation. Hahaha. And puzzling conditions are part of what makes propagation study so interesting. It's less interesting when you just want to make some contacts. ;-)

My favorite beacon(s) these days is FT8, but you already checked that. Quite a few hams, unfortunately and illegally, have fully automated stations that make FT8 contacts unattended, so there are always FT8 signals being transmitted on all bands. Whether you can hear them or not gives the best quick-check of conditions, in my opinion. But, as you pointed out, you already did that.

It's always a fascinating head scratcher when this happens. I've been working long-shifts until this morning so haven't been paying much attention to solar / ionospheric activity. When I run into unexplained crummy conditions I usually find that a high speed stream (HSS) from the sun is the culprit.