The area in light yellow represents territory that Ukraine has taken back in the month of September.

In total, about 10,500 square kilometers, almost exactly 10% of what Russia was holding in total at the start of the month.

@admin Earlier you claimed that the Ukrainian death toll was around 10x the Russian one. How do you reconcile those figures with the facts that Russia failed to take Kiev, is mobilizing, and is losing territory in the East?

@dave @admin Doesn't really seem like conflicting information for me to believe Ukraine to be throwing a lot of men at a defensive line in order to make gains. They're doing the same thing in Kherson and I don't think anybody disagree that there's been some big losses with little to no gain

@RowdyRamzan @dave @admin no gains? Lyman yesterday was a gain. And do you think that offensive a while back gained nothing? Just curious what you consider a gain I'm not trying to start a shit flinging fest.

@Turkleton @admin @dave No gains in Kherson, Lyman is in Kharkov area

@RowdyRamzan @admin @dave is that a gain?

@Turkleton @RowdyRamzan @admin @dave Not only has there been no UA gain in Kherson for about a month, they are starting to transition from offense to defense. They put everything they had at Kharkov and are about to get their shit pushed in in the south, Zaluzhny allegedly says to expect imminent RU advance on Nikolaev

@DK_Dharmaraj @Turkleton @RowdyRamzan @admin @dave And the level of fortification the ukies have dealing with in the south is similar to what the russians have to deal with in donbass, but unlike donbass, the ukies have the numerical advantage.

@AlbinoMutant @Turkleton @RowdyRamzan @admin @dave I haven't seen any direct intelligence to this effect but my gut/intuition says UA no longer possesses equipment or manpower advantages in Donbass, all that shit was sent to Kharkov. I think their lines are a lot more fragile there than anyone realizes and once the first domino falls there will be a rapid collapse to Slavyansk

@DK_Dharmaraj @Turkleton @RowdyRamzan @admin @dave They just broke the army they have been building since march

@AlbinoMutant @DK_Dharmaraj @Turkleton @RowdyRamzan @admin @dave Andrei Martyanov has compared it to a naval battle, where the object is not to "take territory" in the flat plains, but to trash the enemy's hardware and meatware. The Russians and NATO swapping ruined abandoned towns is not conclusive to the eventual outcome of the conflict.

I have no military training, and was not interested in this stuff until recently, but I would think the Zog strategerists would have studied the Russian way of war. Go ahead and try to invade Moscow as the winter closes in. The Russians will watch you drown in mud, freeze your asses off, and laugh.

I also expect Russia to take the velvet gloves off now. I think the Zog fantasy was a "Russian Vietnam", a never-ending war of attrition. And I don't think it will last all that much longer.

I have mentioned it before, and will say again, it is my hope that Zog's nuclear arsenal has been on the same diligent maintenance program as the Pennsylvania Turnpike, and when those assholes push the 'big red button' nothing much will happen. Ol' Major Kong will just crash into the ground and make a smallish radioactive mess.

@not_br549 @AlbinoMutant @DK_Dharmaraj @Turkleton @RowdyRamzan @admin @dave lmao. It might be a war of attrition. But Russia are neither going to lose nor have a Pyrrhic victory :^)
ukraine is depleting americas arsenal.jpg

@PonyPanda @not_br549 @AlbinoMutant @DK_Dharmaraj @RowdyRamzan @Turkleton @admin @dave
Screenshot 2022-10-02 at 20-43-09 Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) _ Twitter.png

@11112011 @admin @PonyPanda @dave @DK_Dharmaraj @RowdyRamzan @Turkleton @not_br549 yes and?

@AlbinoMutant @admin @PonyPanda @dave @DK_Dharmaraj @RowdyRamzan @Turkleton @not_br549 Russia is shrinking incredibly fast

@11112011 @admin @PonyPanda @dave @DK_Dharmaraj @RowdyRamzan @Turkleton @not_br549 territory can be recaptured, but the 20,000 ukrainians that were killed in sept arent coming back

@AlbinoMutant @11112011 @admin @dave @DK_Dharmaraj @RowdyRamzan @Turkleton @not_br549 mud for blood. Everytime these morons advance, Russians retreat behind artillery cover and the hohols get decimated.

Yeah, Ukraine troop losses have been insane. This theory fits with them suspending conscription and making more advances later in the war than they were in the middle of it.

Oh, no, wait, it doesn’t.

@dave @PonyPanda @admin @11112011 @AlbinoMutant @RowdyRamzan @Turkleton @not_br549 they "suspended conscription" in April too and then conscripted tens of thousands anyway

it's going to be really fun dunking on you in a month or so

Lets not pussyfoot around with this, and make it a bet. Here’s my proposal: Nov 1st, we take fresh stock of the situation. If frontlines haven’t changed much, then we’re both wrong. But if they have moved, then one of us has to post something conciliatory, written by the winner, acknowledging that the winner is better-informed and has the more grounded picture of what’s happening in Ukraine.