https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iibs7buNwxQ

RLL does a really good job of presenting a genuinely good visualization of Zeihan's interpretation of Russian geopolitics and offensive/defensive strategies in the west, and then points out the giant flaw in Zeihan's theory -- Russia and China aren't good enough allies to consider the eastern front secure.

@7 Stalin and Churchill would like a word

@skells I'm not saying the western eurasian plane and specifically Ukraine and Poland aren't a bigger concern for Russia, but relying on China could cost them the 'stans.

@7 how do you think the rest of the global south would react to China placing such pressure on Russia?

@skells You seem argumentative but you keep making implications that agree with what I'm saying.

@7 no, genuine question, how do you think the global south would react?

@skells Well, considering China has put bases in land controlled by the CSTO without Moscow's permission, I think they'd respond exactly how they're responding: India will thicken the wall of bodies on that mountaintop border, and smaller trading nations will ignore it where they can but chat with the Quad alliance members whenever the opportunity arises. They hate it but there's not much they can do but diversify import/export destinations. And then there's the muslim islands, who will throw a fit but few people will listen.

@7 not sure on the timeline of the *googles CSTO* thing, Russo-Sino tensions being what they are, don't you think the calculus has changed post-SMO/Slavic Tango?

@skells Not sure what you mean. As far as geography and demography go, the calculus remains the same for both countries, only accelerated for the Russians. Socially, neither country is led by a man getting complete and accurate information so I can't imagine India, Myanmar, Maylasia, Singapore (especially not Singapore with their precarious racial balance) making much of a difference in the decision-making of either Russia or China.

@skells If Russia can't defend the border-stans, and China moves in, India is only barely equipped to expand their fronts, but China hasn't proven they can exert control over separate cultures. They rely so heavily on the We Are Han Chinese party line, and get nothing but bombings at oil fields in Xinjiang for their troubles -- controlling another 'stan would only spread their internal control thinner and expose them to even more unintegrated peoples. The US will deplete the last of its retired equipment and begin selling last-gen equipment being built on converted production lines to both Ukraine and India, come through on 5 year old investments in ships that have been fought over non-stop, and be dicks in the South China Sea, all to pursue "containment."

Or at least, that's what I think because nations, like people, are prone to falling back on old patterns.

@7 I don't see why China would come for the border stans when *see post above*

@skells But Russia _hasn't_ upped the tempo, he has only made moves to try to up the tempo. China is no closer to invading Taiwan, and if they don't move in the next 2 years I don't believe they have the youth population required to move at all. The Saudis are selling in Yuan, and not the Ruble, so again I think you're being a bit... mystical in your thinking of these countries.

To my chagrin and probably yours, none of the countries that have the semiparasitic relationship with the US actually want out of it -- even if their people voice the desire to be out of it. Not in the current geopolitical climate. Germany, Germany has done more to escape parasitic relationships than anyone else, for better or for worse; you don't see any states or banks making the same hard decisions. Even Pakistan is pussying out.

@skells These countries are gaining leverage against the US; that's worth far more to them than making something new and unipolar. I'm not happy about it, but it's what I see.

@skells excuse me, *multipolar

@skells I kinda lost the greater question trying to answer it, sorry -- China would come for the 'stans to secure more of the Indian border in the event they thought Russia unable to defend its own interests and police terrorism within the region.

@7 I don't see your reasoning

nothing has really changed post-SMO, the post-Cold War world works as it is and countries such as India, Turkey, Suadia Arabia etc. are just gonna sit quietly while the Chinese gobble up the 'stans because they support Russia in their war in Ukraine? Why? because Chinese people don't like Russians?

I see why the US might like such a turn of events but it appears to assign no sense of agency to anyone other than China who want to ditch Eurasian integration because the stans are tasty?

I think most people pushing for a multi-polar world seems to be more of a return to form for human kind, particularly when the only people who lose are neocons, there's no reason why the US has to lose on this any more than the rest

if anything it's Europe that get's fucked by the multi-polar world because we'll have to compete without Uncle Sam's finger on the scales

@skells @7 what if the trasition is from america republic to american empire?

@11112011 @7 changed my mind this is an interesting take