I've tried both T2 and Bluesky and they are *great* for people looking for a drop-in Twitter replacement and I think one or both will definitely succeed for anyone seeking that.
For me personally, I've found the weirdness and, yes, some of the obstacles of Mastodon have led to a more useful and healthier relationship with social media.
There's this feedback loop between founder effects and affordances of the medium that will determine how each of these networks plays out...