After yesterday's Deutschlandtrend (Infratest), Politbarometer (FGW) poll confirms that #Germany's #AfD drops below 20% for the first time since last summer. #Wagenknecht's new BSW party just above the electoral threshold, Left, FDP + FW below #GermanPolitics 🌐
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@kaiarzheimer
Do you think this is portending a redistribution of the pure protest vote away from AfD leaving only the dedicated racists, or is it more likely to be a temporary setback?
@tobychev I'm not a big believer in pure protest voting, but the gap between their last national result (2021) and their current polling is still at least 8 points, so some of these 19% are (not) yet voters and may move to other parties (BSW and Werteunion may look particularly attractive), or not vote at all. AfD support was already quite high (~16%) in 2018/19, then dropped & stagnated with the onset of the pandemic. So: it's possible, but I do not really know yet what I think.