@7 no, genuine question, how do you think the global south would react?

@skells Well, considering China has put bases in land controlled by the CSTO without Moscow's permission, I think they'd respond exactly how they're responding: India will thicken the wall of bodies on that mountaintop border, and smaller trading nations will ignore it where they can but chat with the Quad alliance members whenever the opportunity arises. They hate it but there's not much they can do but diversify import/export destinations. And then there's the muslim islands, who will throw a fit but few people will listen.

@skells Oh, and Australia will sell China heavily-doped and diluted gold. That was fucking hilarious.

@7 not sure on the timeline of the *googles CSTO* thing, Russo-Sino tensions being what they are, don't you think the calculus has changed post-SMO/Slavic Tango?

@skells Not sure what you mean. As far as geography and demography go, the calculus remains the same for both countries, only accelerated for the Russians. Socially, neither country is led by a man getting complete and accurate information so I can't imagine India, Myanmar, Maylasia, Singapore (especially not Singapore with their precarious racial balance) making much of a difference in the decision-making of either Russia or China.

@7 pre-invasion you see ~petty mutual testing of boundaries and general shenanigans

post-invasion, Russia has upped the tempo; China wants Taiwan? time to get moving. Western sanctions of limited effect and boomeranging? Dollar reserves looking shaky. Saudi's starting to sell oil in Yuan? Someone's window shopping for a new Uniform Daddy.

If there was a time to break away from the US and establish a multi-polar order it's probably now or never, and as China isn't yet big enough to be the hegemon, simply because the US is still strong.

The KISS strategy is to continue Eurasian integration, stick together and keep the global south on-side. Otherwise the US will ply divide and conquer and pick up the pieces once again.

To conclude, pre-SMO elbowing is way down on the priority list now the game's afoot

@skells If Russia can't defend the border-stans, and China moves in, India is only barely equipped to expand their fronts, but China hasn't proven they can exert control over separate cultures. They rely so heavily on the We Are Han Chinese party line, and get nothing but bombings at oil fields in Xinjiang for their troubles -- controlling another 'stan would only spread their internal control thinner and expose them to even more unintegrated peoples. The US will deplete the last of its retired equipment and begin selling last-gen equipment being built on converted production lines to both Ukraine and India, come through on 5 year old investments in ships that have been fought over non-stop, and be dicks in the South China Sea, all to pursue "containment."

Or at least, that's what I think because nations, like people, are prone to falling back on old patterns.

@7 I don't see why China would come for the border stans when *see post above*

@skells But Russia _hasn't_ upped the tempo, he has only made moves to try to up the tempo. China is no closer to invading Taiwan, and if they don't move in the next 2 years I don't believe they have the youth population required to move at all. The Saudis are selling in Yuan, and not the Ruble, so again I think you're being a bit... mystical in your thinking of these countries.

To my chagrin and probably yours, none of the countries that have the semiparasitic relationship with the US actually want out of it -- even if their people voice the desire to be out of it. Not in the current geopolitical climate. Germany, Germany has done more to escape parasitic relationships than anyone else, for better or for worse; you don't see any states or banks making the same hard decisions. Even Pakistan is pussying out.

@skells These countries are gaining leverage against the US; that's worth far more to them than making something new and unipolar. I'm not happy about it, but it's what I see.

@skells excuse me, *multipolar

@skells I kinda lost the greater question trying to answer it, sorry -- China would come for the 'stans to secure more of the Indian border in the event they thought Russia unable to defend its own interests and police terrorism within the region.

@7 I don't see your reasoning

nothing has really changed post-SMO, the post-Cold War world works as it is and countries such as India, Turkey, Suadia Arabia etc. are just gonna sit quietly while the Chinese gobble up the 'stans because they support Russia in their war in Ukraine? Why? because Chinese people don't like Russians?

I see why the US might like such a turn of events but it appears to assign no sense of agency to anyone other than China who want to ditch Eurasian integration because the stans are tasty?

I think most people pushing for a multi-polar world seems to be more of a return to form for human kind, particularly when the only people who lose are neocons, there's no reason why the US has to lose on this any more than the rest

if anything it's Europe that get's fucked by the multi-polar world because we'll have to compete without Uncle Sam's finger on the scales

@7 lost the knack of schizo-posting intelligibly so good luck with parsing that

@skells I never said they'd sit back quietly, but I never said they're gobbling them up either; right now what I know for sure is that Pakistan is China's greatest chance at bypassing the Strait of Malacca, they've denied a singular Alliance with Russia, and have shown little respect for local policing in a region both consider key to their strategic interests for different reasons. India would absolutely respond, but India's the only one positioned to respond; I did make sure to go into the US doing for India what it does for Ukraine, which will keep the situation in-containment by government standards but it doesn't change the conflict of interest between China and Russia in that dead desert.

Of course all these nations have agency, but it's nowhere near as interesting as I think you want it to be. Their agency is in trade relations, interesting deals, and taking what benefit and advantage they can from the US while the US is in a strong military-support but weak economic condition. India will probably boom all on its own from this, and find a way to shed itself of BRICS, but it won't be directly because of the confict of interest.

@7 why can't China, Russia or anyone else for that matter make interesting deals?

I don't see why China and Strait of Malacca and Pakistan and and and and has anything to do with a general dissatisfaction with US hegemony and the propensity for people to work things out amongst themselves when left to their own devices

your argument seems to rely on inertia and past US hegemonic status sprinkled with a little niche tactical Indo-Sino foreplay

@skells I feel like you're ignoring me, though. Taking advantage of the US at a point of economic weakness appears far more valuable to the countries able to do so, than taking the risk of those actions alone. Of course it depends on past US hegemon status; the US wouldn't be compelled if not for the agreements in 45 and 71 that made them hegemon.

Dissatisfaction with US hegemony seems to be your only point, and that doesn't buy LNG or barrels of oil or any of the things that hold this godawful globalized world tenuously together instead of risking independence.

@7 I see where you're coming from, yet that leverage only lasts as long as the weakness does.

so it depends if the greener grass is judged to be on a more multipolar world than a unipolar one.

every country will have a different take, and 10 years ago people's answer may have been different than the one they give today.

post-covid, post-afghanistan, post-ukraine etc. etc. etc. my suspicion is that lot's of people are weighing their options.

See Hungary.

@7 fundamnetally I don't think even the US want hegemon status, the only people who win from that are the people bombing german pipelines

@7 so you're basically betting that DC and Brussels can hold the rest of the globe up because, I dunno, printer go brrr and aircraft carriers

@7 ( I mean we all know it's Charles in charge but it doesn't help to rile up the Yanks they're good fellas all told)

@skells It's interesting you mention Hungary, that is actually a perfect counterbalance to the German take I've mentioned. I think, perhaps quietly, Germany accepted they would have that cold winter to start preparing for the worst possibility -- Russia crossing into Poland before a next winter. But they're preparing, and they're finding ways to get Leopards out even if they'll never come close to Russian production. Hungary, I'll have to read more into what they've done recently; I've kinda set them aside as "doing a European thing but not so much that I have a reason to mind it."

@skells @7 but thats exactly what a hegemon would do

@11112011 @7 only an insecure one

@skells @7 what if the trasition is from america republic to american empire?

@11112011 @7 bro 1945 called they want their vinyls back

@skells @7 hmmmmmmm

@11112011 @7 changed my mind this is an interesting take

@skells @7 wich m2 grew more in the last 15 years, russia or america?

@11112011 @7 remind me what m2 is again

@skells @7 https://www.stlouisfed.org/financial-crisis/data/m2-monetary-aggregate

@11112011 @7 imagine how much money the US could make trading with an integrated Eurasia and a rising Global South

enlightened greed is good

@skells @7 even the weimar baron dollar domers are toning it down, what does that tell u?